On the one hand, the team used hundreds of simulations from many different climate models, which they then carefully screened for validity. Here, the World Weather Attribution experts admitted to having some reservations. But even a small increase in average temperature can cause temperatures that were once extremely rare to become much more common-while also making a location's hottest observed temperatures even hotter. In both the cooler and the warmer climate, very cold (left side) and very hot (right side) temperatures occur much less frequently than temperatures near the location's average (the high point of the line). The mountain-shaped line represents how often a temperature of a given value occurs. This animation illustrates how a warming climate changes the frequency of extreme heat. Also see our explainer on what a thousand-year event actually means.) (For more background on the science of extreme event attribution, read our explainer, “ Extreme Event Attribution: the climate versus weather blame game. Taken at face value, it would also mean that events like that aren’t about to become common any time soon. Theoretically, a 1-in-150,000-year event-so rare, they concluded, that it’s fair to say it would have been “virtually impossible” in pre-industrial times. (The results are preliminary because, while the methods the experts used have been applied to many other published studies like this, this specific analysis has not yet been formally reviewed by other experts.) If they are correct, it would have been at least 150 times rarer before global warming. Pacific Northwest and come to a preliminary conclusion that the event was a roughly 1-in-1,000-year event in today’s climate. An international team of weather and climate experts known as the “World Weather Attribution” project has analyzed the late June heatwave in the U.S.
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